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Moreover, our findings show that migration has no significant effect on per capita income in Africa regardless of the partner. Finally, exploring the trade openness transmission channel, we establish that the growth-enhancing effect of Africa's trade with industrialized countries mainly occurs through an improvement in total factor productivity. Mot s clé s F22, F4, O4, O Fichier "On the link between current account and oil price fluctuations in diversified economies: The case of Canada" Blaise Gnimassoun, Marc Joëts, Tovonony Razafindrabe Voir Télécharger le document de travail via EconPapers Résumé This study revisits the important relationship between oil prices and current account for oil exporting countries by paying particular attention to the time-varying nature of this link.
To this end, we rely on an innovative method, the time-varying parameter vector autoregressive TVP-VAR model with sign restriction. We find that while an oil supply shock has non-significant impact on the current account, an oil demand shock has a positive and significant effect, which tends to increase over time. In addition, by studying the economic factors underlying the evolution of this relation, we show that the propensity to spend oil revenues on imports has a significant negative infuence on the pass-through of oil demand shocks on current account.
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However, a deepening of the domestic financial market and an accumulation of foreign exchange reserves have a significant positive effect on this relationship. Mot s clé s Current account, Oil prices, Time-varying parameters.
Fichier "Determinants of corruption: Can we put all countries in the same basket? Starting from a cross-sectional study on countries, we rely on the Bayesian Model Averaging BMA approach to address the issue of model uncertainty and identify the key determinants of corruption according to the level of development and the region. Our results highlight the need for specific remedies in the fight against corruption given the regional, sociocultural, economic and institutional specificities. Indeed, the key determinants of corruption in sub-Saharan Africa are not the most relevant in the East Asia and Pacific region.
Similarly, the most important determinants in developed countries are not the most worrying in developing countries. Fichier "Exchange rate misalignments and the external balance under a pegged currency system" Blaise Gnimassoun Voir Télécharger le document de travail via EconPapers Résumé This paper analyzes the link between the exchange rate misalignments and the external balance under a pegged currency system focusing on the CFA zone. Having discussed and chosen an appropriate analytical framework, it addresses the issue of model uncertainty regarding the equilibrium exchange rate model before estimating currency misalignments.
The results show that misalignments have a negative and asymmetric impact on the current account.
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While overvaluation of the CFA franc deteriorates the current account in the CFA zone, undervaluation does not improve it. Finally, our results highlight that the export concentration tends to exacerbate the overall negative impact of currency misalignments on the external balance. Thus, greater economic diversification is needed in an environment in which countries face both uncertainty in the terms of trade and uncertainty in the nominal exchange rate to conduct a proactive exchange rate policy. Mot s clé s Currency peg, Exchange rate misalignments, Current account, concentration of exports, Bayesian model averaging.
Fichier "The importance of the exchange rate regime in limiting current account imbalances in sub-Saharan African countries" Blaise Gnimassoun Voir Télécharger le document de travail via EconPapers Résumé One of the major current concerns of economic policy in developing countries is the choice of the appropriate exchange rate regime to consolidate and accelerate the pace of economic growth.
To this end, we first use Bayesian model averaging BMA to address concerns about model uncertainty and identify the key determinants fundamentals of external balances. Then, estimating current account imbalances over the period, we show that flexible exchange rate regimes are more effective in preventing such disequilibria.
Consequently, candidates for membership of monetary unions should discuss widely the possible adjustment mechanisms before forming such unions; one potential measure being the sharing of external risks at regional level Classification-JEL F32, F33, C11 Mot s clé s Current account imbalances, Exchange rate regime, Bayesian model averaging, Sub-Saharan Africa.
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Fichier "How macroeconomic imbalances interact? Evidence from a panel VAR analysis" Blaise Gnimassoun, Valérie Mignon Voir Télécharger le document de travail via EconPapers Résumé This paper aims at investigating the interactions between three key macroeconomic imbalances, namely current-account discrepancies external imbalances , output gaps internal imbalances , and exchange-rate misalignments. To this end, we rely on the estimation of a panel VAR model for a sample of 22 industrialized countries over the period.
Our findings show that macroeconomic imbalances strongly interact through a causal relationship. We evidence that if current-account disequilibria threaten the stability of the global economy, their origin can be found in internal imbalances and exchange-rate misalignments: positive output-gap shocks as well as currency overvaluation deepen current-account deficits.
In addition, while variations in external imbalances mainly result from exchange-rate misalignments in the euro area, they are mostly explained by output gaps for non-eurozone members. Relying on a formal theoretical framework and recent panel cointegration techniques, our findings show that current accounts have been globally sustainable in Sub-Saharan Africa countries over the period.
However, this sustainability has been lower for countries operating a fixed exchange rate regime or belonging to a monetary union. We also find that the difference in the level of sustainability could be explained by a higher persistence in the current account adjustment of countries operating under rigid exchange rate regimes.
We rely on a nonlinear model linking the persistence of current-account imbalances to the deviation of the exchange rate to its equilibrium value.
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Estimating a panel smooth transition regression model on a sample of 22 industrialized countries, we show that persistence of current-account imbalances strongly depends on currency misalignments. Classification-JEL F32, F31, C33 Mot s clé s current-account imbalances, current-account persistence, exchange-rate misalignments, panel smooth transition regression models Fichier "Optimality of a monetary union : New evidence from exchange rate misalignments in West Africa" Issiaka Coulibaly, Blaise Gnimassoun Voir Télécharger le document de travail via EconPapers Résumé This paper aims to study the optimality of a monetary union in West Africa by using a new methodology based on the analysis of convergence and co-movements between exchange rate misalignments.
Two main advantages characterize this original framework. First, it brings together the information related to several optimum currency area criteria— such as price convergence, terms of trade shocks, and trade and fiscal policies—going further than previous studies which are mainly based on only one criterion at a given time. Second, our study detects potential competitiveness differentials which play a key role in the debate on the optimality or not of a monetary union, as evidenced by the recent crisis in the Euro area.
Relying on recent panel cointegration techniques and cluster analysis, our results show that the WAEMU area has a core composed by Burkina Faso, Mali, Niger and Senegal which can be joined by Ghana, Sierra Leone and, to a lesser extent, Gambia, and that Ghana and Senegal appear to be the best reference countries for the creation of the whole West Africa monetary union.
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